11 hrs daily power cuts in offing

11 hrs daily power cuts in offing
eKantipur.com, 23-Aug-2007
BY BIKASH SANGRAULA

The country will face up to 11 hours of daily power cuts in the coming dry season (November-April), according to Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA). The power cuts will be inevitable owing to a peak time power deficit of as much as 354 megawatts (MW).

"The worst power cuts of 11 hours per day will happen in February-March 2008," said Sher Singh Bhat, chief of NEA's Load Dispatching Center (LDC). LDC is NEA's central body responsible for managing the country's power demand and supply and forecasting, preparing and enforcing power cut schedules.

Owing to heavy power cuts, every industry in Birgunj will have to be closed for two to three days a week. The current demand in Birgunj alone is 125 MW, Bhat said.

The longest power cuts the country faced in the last dry season was seven hours daily. Between then and now, the country's energy demand and capacity demand have risen by 8.5 and 8.8 percent respectively, according to Bhat. However, there hasn't been any noteworthy addition of power stations in the national grid.

Addressing the country's business community in the capital on Thursday, Bhat said the peak electricity demand expected in the upcoming dry season is 714 megawatts, while the total energy availability then, including import from India, free power from Tanakpur, and operation of the country's thermal plants, will be just 360 megawatts.

"In the unlikely scenario that we import additional 50 megawatts from India under trading mode from November this year, apart from the 50 megawatt import under power exchange agreement and seventy million units from Tanakpur, the power cuts can go down to nine hours daily," Bhat said.

Forecasts for the coming years are not good either. Even if the 70 MW Middle Marsyangdi comes into operation in August 2008, there will still be up to 10 hours daily power cuts in the dry season of 2008/09, up to 13 hours daily in 2009/10, up to 14 hours daily in 2010/2011, and up to 17 hours daily in 2011/12.

Even in the event Nepal builds high-voltage transmission corridors with India by mid-2009, as targeted by NEA, to import additional power, the scenario does not look good. "If we want affordable electricity, we will have to purchase power from India's long-term market for which we will have to sign a 25-year take or pay agreements. If we want to buy from short-term markets, the effective cost after wheeling charge and trading margin will come to around Rs 12 per unit," Bhat said.

NEA currently charges an average tariff of Rs 6.50 to domestic consumers.

"The only solution is to develop our own projects," he said.

NEA has plans to start operation of 60 MW Upper Trishuli 3A, 27 MW Rahughat, and 14 MW Kulekhani III by 2010, and 45 MW Upper Trishuli 3B, 30 MW Chamelia, and 309 MW Upper Tamakoshi by 2012. Of these, only Kulekhani III and Chamelia are under construction.